Over the last few decades, autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has become one of the fastest-growing neurodevelopmental conditions in the world. Once considered rare, it is now a common diagnosis affecting millions of children and adults globally.
But what is driving this increase? Is it simply a result of better diagnostics, or are there deeper biological, environmental, and genetic mechanisms at play?
In this article, we explore what science has already confirmed about the rise of autism and what that means for the future of humanity.
📊 How Much Has Autism Increased?
According to the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), the prevalence of autism in the United States has jumped from 1 in 150 children in the year 2000 to 1 in 36 in the most recent estimates. Similar trends are being reported in countries like the UK, Canada, South Korea, and Brazil.
This increase has led many researchers to investigate whether we’re simply diagnosing more cases or if there is a true rise in incidence — and the answer appears to be both.
🔍 What Science Already Knows
1. Better Diagnosis and Awareness
Yes, part of the rise can be attributed to broader diagnostic criteria (DSM-5), increased awareness among parents and professionals, and better screening tools — especially in early childhood.
But even after adjusting for these factors, several studies (e.g., Nevison et al., 2018; Elsabbagh et al., 2012) confirm that a real increase in the number of autistic individuals is occurring, not only due to reclassification.
2. Genetic Contribution
Genetics plays a major role in autism. Hundreds of genes have been linked to ASD, especially those involved in synaptic development, chromatin remodeling, and neurogenesis (Gandal et al., 2018).
However, this genetic risk is not always inherited. De novo mutations, which are spontaneous changes in the genetic code, often occur during embryonic development — and these are on the rise, especially with advanced paternal age, pollution, and radiation exposure.
3. Epigenetics and Environmental Factors
Genes don’t act alone. Epigenetic mechanisms — such as DNA methylation, histone modification, and RNA regulation — influence how genes are expressed without changing the DNA sequence.
These changes can be triggered by:
Prenatal exposure to toxins (e.g. pesticides, heavy metals) Maternal inflammation or infections during pregnancy Air pollution and endocrine-disrupting chemicals Stress, nutrition, and gut microbiota imbalances
All of these factors are now more common in modern society, possibly explaining the global increase in neurodevelopmental variation.
4. Evolutionary Hypotheses
Some researchers propose that autism is not only a disorder, but also a form of evolutionary adaptation. Certain autistic traits — such as heightened perception, pattern recognition, memory, and hyperfocus — may have offered evolutionary advantages.
This hypothesis is explored in articles like Crespi & Badcock (2008), Baron-Cohen (2017), and more recently, in studies that associate autism with higher systemizing ability, creative thinking, and technological affinity.
Could it be that humanity is undergoing a neurological shift toward neurodiversity?
🧬 What This Means for the Future
The rise of autism challenges outdated models of normality and disability. It forces us to rethink education, parenting, workspaces, and medicine. It also demands more inclusive societies and ethical scientific frameworks that go beyond pathology.
Science is increasingly confirming that autism is not just a disease, but a divergent way of processing reality — one that brings both challenges and gifts.
Supporting autistic individuals with respect, access, and tailored resources is not just compassionate — it is scientifically and socially necessary.
📚 Want to Learn More?
If you’re a parent, educator, therapist, or simply someone curious about this topic, I invite you to read my book:
“Guide for the Atypical Family: Down Syndrome, Autism, and the New Human Evolution”
by Dr. Patricia Sambati
In this book, I share my personal and scientific journey with my daughter Izabela, born with Trisomy 21 and later diagnosed with Level 1 Autism.
Through genetics, neuroscience, and integrative medicine, I explore how our children may be heralds of a new era — one where sensitivity, diversity, and consciousness play central roles in human evolution.
➡️ Available on Amazon in English and Portuguese.
🌐 Visit: neurodivergentgenetic.com
🔬 References:
Nevison, C., et al. (2018). “A Comparison of Temporal Trends in United States Autism Prevalence to Trends in Suspected Environmental Factors.” Environmental Health. Gandal, M. J., et al. (2018). “Transcriptome-wide isoform-level dysregulation in ASD, schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder.” Science. Baron-Cohen, S. (2017). “The Pattern Seekers: A New Theory of Human Invention.” Basic Books. Crespi, B. & Badcock, C. (2008). “Psychosis and Autism as Diametrical Disorders of the Social Brain.” Behavioral and Brain Sciences. Elsabbagh, M., et al. (2012). “Global prevalence of autism and other pervasive developmental disorders.” Autism Research.